Rupee hits 1-month closing high despite RBI repo rate pause; sliding crude oil prices help
The rupee strengthened to a one-month high on Wednesday, supported by lower crude oil prices. However, gains were trimmed after the Reserve Bank of India delivered its widely anticipated decision to keep policy rates unchanged.The currency opened 0.5% stronger at 94.92 against the US dollar, its highest level since July 1. It later gave up nearly half of its early advance to settle at 95.1175 per dollar, its strongest closing level since July 7.According to Dilip Parmar, Foreign Exchange Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the RBI’s decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, along with a rebound in the US dollar and oil prices, weighed on the rupee after its initial rally.“From a technical standpoint, the spot USD/INR is seeing immediate support around 94.75 and resistance near 95.60. Although the macro bias for the pair remains structurally weak, short-term bargain hunting could push the currency toward resistance levels,” he told Reuters.
Lower oil prices help
Oil prices played a key role in driving currency movements. Benchmark Brent crude had fallen more than 12% over the previous two sessions on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough in the five-month-long US-Iran conflict. However, prices recovered on Wednesday after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea.Also Read | As gold, stock markets lose lustre – why your humble fixed deposit is foreverThe sharp decline in crude prices earlier this week supported the rupee, which has appreciated 1.4% over the past eight trading sessions. Traders also attributed the positive sentiment to a recent pickup in foreign exchange inflows.Market participants said that any appreciation of the rupee beyond the 95-per-dollar mark is likely to trigger fresh demand for the US currency.The RBI left both its benchmark policy rate and policy stance unchanged on Wednesday as policymakers awaited clearer evidence on whether volatile crude oil prices would translate into broader inflationary pressures.Opinions on the policy outlook remain divided. Sonal Badhan, Economist at state-owned Bank of Baroda, expects the RBI to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points in December to prevent real interest rates from turning negative and to support the rupee.Meanwhile, dollar-rupee forward premiums declined during the session, broadly mirroring movements in the spot market. The one-year implied yield eased by 7 basis points to 2.79%.Also Read | US-Iran conflict, El Nino: Why RBI did not hike repo rate despite headwinds
