Saudi Arabia readies 100,000 Yemeni troops for Houthi assault: Can fragmented Yemeni forces retake Bab el-Mandeb?
Saudi Arabia is preparing an offensive against Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, with Riyadh weighing a limited coastal assault around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait or a broader multi-front operation.According to Reuters, the offensive could be launched in the coming weeks and would be led by Yemeni forces and backed by Saudi air strikes.The report, citing six people familiar with the preparations, said more than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilised depending on the scale of the operation, while the timing remains uncertain, with estimates ranging from within a week to after the US midterm elections in early November.The immediate objective of the planned offensive is to reverse the Houthis’ rapid gains last month, when the group advanced down Yemen’s Red Sea coast and seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, according to people familiar with the Saudi preparations cited by Reuters.Bab el-Mandeb is the southern exit of the Red Sea and a key shipping route between the Mediterranean and Asia. The route has gained greater importance this year as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed by the Iran conflict.Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said he expected the operation to be more limited than the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen that began in 2015.“Ideally, it would be a fairly limited operation to retake coastal areas and get back to normal maritime traffic,” Ratney said, according to Reuters.Ratney’s assessment points to the immediate military objective being focused on the Red Sea coast rather than an attempt to defeat the Houthis across Yemen.Saudi Arabia’s problem on the groundThe biggest challenge for Riyadh is the condition of the Yemeni forces that would lead the ground offensive. The force is a collection of factions armed and trained by Saudi Arabia and the UAE rather than a unified military, and those groups have competing political and territorial interests.Yemen analyst Mohammed Albasha told Reuters that many anti-Houthi forces are still “not organised or prepared” for the sustained offensive needed to push back the Houthis, who are applying pressure across several fronts.The anti-Houthi camp was further fractured last winter when UAE-backed southern fighters clashed with Saudi-backed forces after trying to seize territory in eastern Yemen.Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political analyst close to government thinking, also said the outcome would depend on the performance of the local forces, with the ground campaign moving from defending positions to going on the offensive.Where are Saudi Arabia’s allies?Saudi Arabia’s allies are backing Riyadh mainly through intelligence, equipment and defensive support rather than direct combat in Yemen.The United States, Saudi Arabia’s most powerful ally, is providing military advisers and intelligence, including targeting information for Saudi air operations.However, Reuters reported that President Donald Trump had previously rejected Saudi requests for direct US military support, including air strikes, leaving Riyadh to conduct the air campaign itself.A separate pillar of Saudi security is the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, signed by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey on August 7.The pact says an armed attack on one of the three countries will be treated as an attack on all. But Pakistan has so far stopped short of committing combat forces to Yemen.Islamabad has instead sent air-defence systems, light artillery, drones and anti-drone equipment, while 30,000 to 40,000 Pakistani troops are deployed inside Saudi Arabia for border defence and missile and drone interception.Turkey has also supplied military equipment and Turkish drones are being used over Yemen, while France has announced defensive systems and troops for the protection of Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu.The military chiefs of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey met in Riyadh on September 25 to discuss the situation, while Pakistan’s foreign minister said on October 2 that the three countries would hold an emergency meeting in Riyadh next week.
