Diesel prices have surged to record levels in Europe and the United States as wars in Iran and Ukraine disrupt supplies from major producers and damage refineries, leaving limited options to prevent further gains.European diesel futures closed at an all-time high last week, having more than doubled from the start of 2026. Supply disruptions have also spread to the Red Sea, where Saudi Arabia loads most of its diesel.In the US, average retail diesel prices crossed $6 a gallon for the first time on record this month. In Asia, benchmark diesel prices have also remained close to record levels amid disruptions to Middle Eastern and Russian supplies.
Refinery disruptions deepen global diesel squeeze
The wars in the Middle East and Ukraine have damaged refineries, while facilities elsewhere have been operating at high levels to make up for lost fuel supplies.US refineries were running at their highest level in eight years in late August, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).“A key issue is that many refineries around the world are already stretched to capacity,” the IEA said in a newsletter on Monday. “This leaves few available options to prevent a further tightening of supplies and higher prices in the coming months.”Middle East diesel exports fell by half between March and August compared with a year earlier, averaging 800,000 barrels per day, according to shipping data from Kpler. The region supplied nearly 41% of Europe’s diesel imports in 2025.“Any further disruption to Red Sea flows risks tightening an already stretched global diesel market,” Kpler analyst George Shaw said, as cited by Reuters.Shaw added that refining capacity remained a key constraint.
Russia’s refinery attacks hit diesel exports
Russia, the world’s second-largest diesel exporter after the US, banned diesel exports in July after Ukrainian drone attacks reduced refinery production.Russia and Ukraine have continued attacking each other’s energy infrastructure despite an announcement by US President Donald Trump last week that they had agreed to stop. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday that he would meet Trump in the coming days.Russia had supplied significant volumes of diesel to countries including Turkey and Brazil before the ban, prompting importers to seek alternative supplies.In Europe, diesel stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining and storage hub were at their lowest level for this time of year on September 10, according to Insights Global.
US diesel stocks remain below seasonal levels
US diesel inventories also remain below normal seasonal levels despite high refinery utilisation. Stocks rose by about 600,000 barrels last week but stood at 96.97 million barrels, nearly 15% below the five-year average for the second week of September.Average US diesel prices reached a record $6.52 per gallon on Monday, according to the AAA Automobile Association.In France, the average diesel price reached a record €2.41 per litre on Sunday, according to an AFP analysis.
Asia prices remain near record levels
Asian diesel prices have also risen sharply because of disruptions to Middle Eastern and Russian supplies. The benchmark diesel swaps price had eased from a March record of more than $200 a barrel but remained around $180 a barrel on September 18.Current levels are still about twice their pre-war values.China’s diesel exports fell 26% in April-June from a year earlier after the government limited refined-product exports, tightening global supplies.Exports subsequently recovered to around 320,000 barrels per day in August, their highest level in nearly 2.5 years, while domestic stocks declined.
Few quick options to ease fuel prices
The disruptions have created limited short-term options for increasing diesel supplies. Rystad Energy vice-president Janiv Shah said some unused refining capacity existed on paper but that little could be activated quickly and supplied with the appropriate crude.A resumption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would likely be the quickest way to ease prices, Shah said, as it would allow Asian refineries to receive supplies.IEA oil industry and markets division head Toril Bosoni warned that if Gulf supplies remained constrained and commercial inventories continued to fall rapidly, higher prices and further reductions in demand could be needed to close the supply-demand gap.Shah said higher prices could reduce diesel consumption, but the short-term effect would be limited because trucking, agriculture, construction and industry have few immediate alternatives.
