Gold and silver prices are likely to remain volatile next week, with the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, crude oil movements, the US dollar and developments in the US-Iran conflict expected to drive market sentiment, analysts said.The September 15-16 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be the key global event for bullion markets. The Fed’s policy decision and Chair Kevin Warsh’s commentary are likely to set the tone for precious metals.Commodity markets will remain closed for the morning session on Monday due to Ganesh Chaturthi.“Going ahead, gold will remain highly sensitive to Fed commentary, crude oil movements, the US dollar, inflation expectations and geopolitical developments,” Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst – commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said, as cited by news agency PTI.He said any moderation in crude prices or a less hawkish stance by the US Federal Reserve could support a recovery in gold, while renewed strength in crude oil or a hawkish policy signal may trigger fresh selling.
Gold edges up, silver falls in domestic market
The domestic market showed a mixed trend last week. Gold futures for October delivery edged up Rs 17 to Rs 1,52,784 per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange, while silver fell Rs 2,684, or 1.13 per cent, to settle at Rs 2.34 lakh per kilogram.In the global market, Comex gold futures for December delivery fell 1.5 per cent to USD 4,408.9 per ounce, while silver declined 2.34 per cent to USD 65.19 per ounce.“Gold futures moved between gains and losses throughout last week, but overall remained under selling pressure and closed the week in negative territory by 1.5 per cent,” Pranav Mer, senior vice president, EBG – commodity & currency research, JM Financial Services Ltd, said.Mer said the downside in the domestic market was capped by a sharp fall in the rupee.
Other central banks, inflation data in focus
Investors will also track monetary policy decisions from the Bank of England and Bank of Japan following the Fed. According to Mer, all three central banks are expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points.Markets will also watch inflation data from India, Germany, the UK, the eurozone, the US and Japan. China’s investment and factory activity data will be important for industrial metals, Mer said.Meanwhile, crude oil prices ended the week above $100 a barrel amid escalating hostilities in West Asia, adding another key variable for bullion markets.Trivedi said the outlook for gold and silver remains volatile and data-driven, with the Fed decision likely to provide the next major directional trigger.
