LUCKNOW: BJP is learnt to have zeroed in on at least 100 MLAs who are reportedly facing anti-incumbency at the ground level and a large number of them may be denied the ticket to contest the UP Assembly elections next year.Sources said this data has emerged after an on-ground assessment done by the party in 255 seats represented by BJP in the UP Assembly.A top UP BJP member confirmed to TOI that about 100 MLAs are on the radar following reports of lack of trust in them among voters. Friction with the organisational brass at the local level is also being accounted for while flagging these legislators, the senior member said. Sources said that feedback has also been taken from RSS vis-à-vis the candidacy of the sitting MLAs.Reports said BJP has been collecting constituency-level feedback to gauge the winnability factor which weighs heavily over seniority, political stature or the number of previous victories in the distribution of tickets.The party’s internal assessment is understood to be that after two consecutive terms in govt, dissatisfaction with individual legislators could become a bigger electoral liability than dissatisfaction with govt as a whole.A senior UP BJP politician said the party think tank has suggested inclusion of youth, women and newer faces from the party organisation in an attempt to combine anti-incumbency management with the generational change.The anticipated shake-up is seen to be closely related to the lessons BJP drew from the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in which the party’s tally plunged from 62 to 33. The drop was not only attributed to the opposition’s Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak (PDA) narrative but also to the local anti-incumbency that reportedly prevailed against several sitting MPs.Records show BJP had renominated 49 of its sitting MPs in the 2024 LS elections in UP, of whom 27 lost. Sources said the party is in no mood to repeat the approach on a larger scale. “Message has been conveyed that a sitting MLA will not have an automatic claim to the party ticket,” a senior UP BJP member said. Not surprisingly, even MLAs who have won more than two terms could be dropped if internal feedback points to significant anti-incumbency against them.At the same time, an incumbent legislator who continues to retain strong support and is assessed to have a clear electoral advantage could be retained irrespective of how long he or she has been in the Assembly. Sources said the party is also looking at representation for its wider cadre, rather than relying predominantly on established political figures.
