In a lightning offensive last week, Yemen’s Houthis took over much of the country’s Red Sea coast, threatening shipping in the vital sea lane that had emerged as an alternative to Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. Houthis have been fighting a Saudi-led military coalition for a decade, although a 2022 UN-brokered truce halted their attacks on Saudi territory. But the Houthis’ latest move has once again sent oil prices north of the $100 per barrel mark, adding another front to the wider US-Israel war against Iran. Here’s the lowdown on why the Houthis’ Red Sea threat matters, how this puts Saudi Arabia in a serious pickle, and what it means for the Iran war:
What’s the latest Houthi offensive all about?
The offensive saw Houthis take over key parts of Yemen’s Red Sea coast. This adds weight to the Houthi threat to shipping in the vital sea lane. In fact, Houthis had earlier declared a blockade of Saudi ships in the region. Now they can seriously enforce this. Their mere presence along the coastline will make shippers jittery and raise insurance costs.
Why is this a serious headache?
With Strait of Hormuz effectively locked up by Iran and US, Red Sea had emerged as a vital alternative route, especially for energy trade out of the region. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was working at full capacity, transporting around 7 million barrels of oil daily across the breadth of the peninsula to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. This was a crucial lifeline for the global energy trade that had been severely restricted following the outbreak of the Iran war in Feb. But that East-West pipeline was hit by a drone attack last week — blamed on Iran-backed Shia militias in Iraq — to coincide with the Houthi advance on the Red Sea coast. Both operations seem to have been coordinated to put the choke on Red Sea shipping, which has to pass through the narrow Bab el-Mandeb strait that Houthis can now theoretically shut down.
Why now?
The timing of all this is not a coincidence. Actually, when the Iran war began, among Iran’s proxies in the region, Houthis held back. But in July, following the state funeral of Iran’s former supreme leader Ali Khamenei, an Iranian plane carrying the Houthi delegation back to Yemen was threatened by Saudi Arabia. Riyadh did not want that plane to land, and bombed the airport in the Houthi-controlled Yemeni capital of Sanaa. But that plane landed anyway.Following the episode, Houthi rhetoric against the Saudis flared up. But the key development that may have pushed Houthis into action could be the American blockade of Iranian ports and shipping in Persian Gulf.By many estimates, that blockade appears to be working, and putting enormous pressure on the Iranian economy. Tehran is unable to push out its own oil, the Iranian rial has tanked, and Iranians have actually taken to saving eggs instead of hard cash. Plus, this is a strategy that plays into America’s strength — it can carry out a naval blockade for a far longer period than a continuous kinetic war against Iran.So, Iran, through the Houthi action, is sending the message that if oil can’t pass through Hormuz, any alternative routes, including through the Red Sea, will also be shut. In short, the energy trade in the region is handcuffed till the war is resolved.What do Houthis want? The Houthis’ main grievance is against the Saudis, whom they have been fighting since 2015. But, of course, as a member of Iran’s so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’, they are now being heavily supported by Tehran in terms of material and intelligence inputs. Especially since the Gaza and Iran wars have seen Tehran’s two main proxies in Hezbollah and Hamas take a huge battering. So, the Iranian Axis appears to be undergoing a recalibration, with Houthis and Iran-backed militias in Iraq taking a more leading role among the proxies. Ultimately Houthis want legitimacy. Their attacks against Saudi Arabia — they reportedly fired a drone at Mecca earlier this week — raise their profile. Their capture of the Red Sea coast gives them international attention. And these, in turn, see them emerge as the primary force in Yemen, instead of the internationally backed Yemeni transition govt. Obviously, all of this helps Iran.
Why are Saudis in a jam?
Because US has refused to directly intervene against Houthis this time. Washington is providing diplomatic and advisory support to Riyadh, but not much else. Saudis want missile and drone interceptors. But US stocks are running low, thanks to its war with Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has similarly sought assistance from Egypt and UK. But no one is rushing military aid to Riyadh. Interestingly, even the recently inked Mecca Pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Pakistan hasn’t been activated.
What are the takeaways?
First, Houthis prove Iran’s Axis of Resistance is changing shape, with the Yemini militia taking a leading role. This has implications for both the Iran war, and security in Red Sea and Horn of Africa region. And second, alternative routes to Hormuz for energy transit, whether through sea or pipelines, are also not fully secure. They can be targeted by a host of Iran-backed militias in the region. This puts West Asia’s dominance in global energy supply under a serious cloud, perhaps forcing the international community to look for alternatives away from the region.
