The US housing market is facing fresh pressure as mortgage rates approach 7%, adding to affordability concerns for buyers already grappling with record-high home prices and an uncertain economic outlook.The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage stood at 6.76% last week, according to Freddie Mac. But daily rates have since crossed 7%, according to Mortgage News Daily, which uses a different methodology, The Wall Street Journal reported.While the 7% threshold does not by itself represent a major change in affordability, economists say it could further discourage buyers who have already been holding back from the market.“A jump in rates like this will certainly cause [prospective home buyers] to pause,” Michael Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, told WSJ. “They may not go ahead and put in that contract or apply for the loan.”Mortgage rates last touched 7% in January 2025, according to the Journal, but have not remained above that level for an extended period since the second half of 2023. Before 2022, 30-year mortgage rates had not reached 7% since 2001.Why are mortgage rates rising?The 30-year mortgage rate generally tracks the 10-year US Treasury yield, which briefly crossed 5% on Monday for the first time since late 2023, according to WSJ. Rates have risen amid the Iran war, persistent inflation concerns and growing US deficits, adding to a housing market already struggling with weak sales.The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate Wednesday for the first time in three years. The move could push mortgage rates lower if it reassures markets on inflation, or higher if investors see inflation risks worsening.The higher borrowing costs come as home sales have already been weak.The National Association of Realtors reported last week that existing-home sales fell 2% in August from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, the lowest level since June last year.The combination of high prices and borrowing costs is particularly difficult for prospective buyers because even a relatively small increase in mortgage rates can significantly raise the total interest paid over a 30-year loan.Buyers are also unlikely to be able to rely on refinancing in the near term if mortgage rates remain elevated.Earlier this year, a brief decline in rates below 6% triggered a surge of buyer interest and raised hopes of a housing-market recovery. But rates rose sharply after the US and Israel attacked Iran and have climbed further in recent weeks amid a bond-market selloff.Weak demand is increasingly prompting some sellers to reconsider putting their homes on the market.Ng said more sellers were taking a similar approach, with some choosing to wait rather than accept lower offers in a weak market.At current mortgage rates, a buyer could face a monthly mortgage payment of nearly $5,000, according to the WSJ.Inventory offers some relief There is one important difference between the current market and the housing slump of 2023: buyers now have more homes to choose from.In 2023, many homeowners with mortgages carrying rates of just 2% or 3% were reluctant to sell because moving would mean taking on a much more expensive loan. The resulting shortage of homes intensified competition among buyers and pushed prices higher.That dynamic has eased as more homeowners, tired of waiting for mortgage rates to fall, have decided to sell. Inventory is now close to pre-pandemic levels.But a return to 7% mortgage rates could weaken that improvement. Homeowners with very low existing mortgage rates may once again have little incentive to sell, potentially limiting the supply of homes available to buyers.Higher borrowing costs could also hurt new-home construction. Builders have increasingly offered mortgage-rate discounts to attract buyers in the sluggish market. As rates rise, those incentives become more expensive, potentially squeezing builders’ profits and reducing their willingness to increase construction.Economists do not expect mortgage rates to return quickly to the exceptionally low levels seen during the pandemic.
