India may have produced enough plutonium for 140 to 225 nukes, might have assembled up to 190 warheads: US study

New Delhi: At least 30 additional nuclear warheads for new missiles under production have been added to India’s 160 existing warheads for operational launchers, taking the total such warheads with the country to 190, according to a US nonprofit policy think tank.The article, titled ‘India’s Nuclear Weapons – 2026’, published on Wednesday, said, “India continues to modernise its nuclear arsenal, with several new weapon systems fielded in recent years and several more under development to complement or replace existing nuclear-capable aircraft, land-based delivery systems, and sea-based systems. We estimate that India may have produced enough military plutonium for 140 to 225 nuclear warheads and might have assembled up to 190. With more weapon systems in development, the country’s warhead stockpile will likely increase further.”The nuclear notebook is researched and written by the staff of the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information Project director Hans M Kristensen, associate director Matt Korda, research and project manager Mackenzie Knight-Boyle, and senior research associate Eliana Johns. “We estimate that India currently operates nine different nuclear-capable systems: two aircraft, six land-based ballistic missiles, and one sea-based ballistic missile. At least two more systems are in development and nearing completion and are to be fielded with the armed forces within one or a few years,” the report said.As India does not publish numbers of its its nuclear weapon stockpile, analyses and estimates made in the research are derived from a combination of open sources: state-originating data like govt statements, declassified documents; non-state-originating data like media reports, think tank analyses, and industry publications; and commercial satellite imagery.India is one of only a handful of countries believed to be producing both highly enriched uranium (HEU) and weapons-grade plutonium and its HEU production is largely assumed to be focused on producing fuel for its growing number of nuclear-powered vessels and submarines, the report said.“India’s source of weapons-grade plutonium has been the aging 100-megawatt (MWt) Dhruva plutonium production reactor at Bhabha Atomic Research Centre complex near Mumbai, and until 2010 the CIRUS reactor at the same location. After more than a decade of delays, India’s new 500-MWt Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) at the Indira Gandhi Center for Atomic Research near Kalpakkam reached first criticality in April 2026. Fuelled by a stockpile of reactor-grade plutonium separated from India’s first-generation power reactors, the new reactor irradiates a “blanket” of uranium or thorium to produce Plutonium-239 and Uranium-233. If operated at 80% efficiency, the PFBR could hypothetically produce an estimated 140 kg of plutonium-239 per year, sufficient for up to 35 nuclear warheads,” the article said elaborating on India’s nuclear programme.“Several more fast breeder reactors are planned, including two that are in pre-planning stage (FBR-1 and FBR-2) and will be located adjacent to the Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor at Kalpakkam. If operated successfully, the breeder reactors could potentially increase significantly the amount of plutonium available for India’s nuclear warhead stockpile,” it further said.“As of the beginning of 2026, the International Panel on Fissile Materials estimated India to have produced approximately 730 kg (plus or minus about 170 kg) of weapon-grade plutonium,” the report said, adding, “Assuming 4 kg of plutonium per warhead, this would theoretically be sufficient for producing anywhere between 140 and 225 nuclear warheads.” However, this calculation comes with some caveats due to several uncertainties, the report indicated.“Regardless of the warhead designs, it is unlikely that India has used all its plutonium to produce warheads, and it may have kept some in reserve,” the report said, adding, “the size of India’s nuclear stockpile also depends on the number and types of launchers that can deliver them, as it is unlikely that it would produce significantly more warheads than these systems can launch.”“India is committed to maintaining credible minimum deterrence and a posture of ‘no first use’ of nuclear weapons,” the Modi govt told Parliament recently. As compared to India’s estimated 170 nuclear warheads, Pakistan has an estimated stockpile of approximately 170 nuclear warheads, according to a recent SIPRI report.