Iran has signalled that it could expand pressure beyond the Strait of Hormuz to another of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. The warning comes as disruptions in Hormuz continue to strain global energy markets and shipping.“Regional energy exports are either shared by all, or denied to all,” the IRGC said in a statement. The message was interpreted by analysts as Iran signaling that it may use its Yemen-based Houthi allies to shut the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea.
Why the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is so important
Often called the “Gate of Tears”, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Sitting between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, it forms the southern gateway to the Suez Canal, making it one of the shortest and busiest trade routes between Asia and Europe.Around 12-15% of global maritime trade passes through the Red Sea corridor each year, including crude oil, LNG, fertilisers, grains, manufactured goods and container cargo. The route is also vital for digital infrastructure, with the majority of fibre-optic cables linking Europe and Asia running beneath the Red Sea. Any disruption can therefore affect not only shipping but also communications and global supply chains.The importance of the waterway has grown further because shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has already been disrupted. Saudi Arabia has increasingly diverted crude exports through its east-west pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, with oil shipments through Bab el-Mandeb rising sharply. Reuters reported that around 7.4 million barrels of petroleum per day transited the strait in June, making it an increasingly important alternative export route.
How Iran could threaten the Red Sea
Unlike the Strait of Hormuz, Iran does not directly control Bab el-Mandeb. Instead, its leverage comes through the Houthi movement, which controls much of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, including areas close to the strait. The group has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to target commercial vessels using drones, anti-ship missiles and ballistic missiles.Since late 2023, the Houthis have attacked more than 100 commercial ships in support of Palestinians during the Gaza conflict, forcing many of the world’s largest shipping companies to reroute vessels around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. Those attacks significantly increased freight costs, insurance premiums and transit times before easing following a Gaza ceasefire.
What a Red Sea disruption would mean
A renewed Houthi campaign in the Red Sea would have consequences far beyond the Middle East. Shipping companies would again be forced to sail around southern Africa, adding 10 to 15 days to journeys while increasing fuel costs, insurance premiums and freight charges. Those costs would eventually be passed on to consumers through higher prices.Energy markets would be particularly vulnerable. With Hormuz already under pressure, simultaneous disruption at Bab el-Mandeb could affect two of the world’s most important oil corridors at the same time, reducing export options for Gulf producers and increasing the risk of another sharp spike in global oil prices.
