Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned airlines and insurers that Russian airspace is becoming increasingly dangerous as Ukraine expands its long-range drone campaign deep inside Russia, saying the skies could “effectively be closing” as Ukrainian drones continue to operate over Russian territory.According to Reuters, Zelenskyy issued the warning in his nightly address on Tuesday, telling airlines that use Russian airspace, insurers and operators at key Russian airports that “the Russian sky is becoming completely dangerous.”
“Today, we want to warn every airline that uses Russian airspace, every insurer, everyone who still uses key Russian airports, the Russian sky is becoming completely dangerous,” Zelenskyy said. He stressed that Ukraine does not threaten civilian aviation but warned that “there will be drones in Russia’s skies and due notice must be taken.”The warning comes as Ukraine intensifies its long-range drone campaign against targets deep inside Russia, including oil-related facilities. Aviation risk firm Osprey Flight Solutions said Ukrainian attacks deeper inside Russia are “near-certain” on a daily basis through 2026 and could increase in the short term, including around Moscow and St Petersburg.Osprey said most Ukrainian drone and missile strikes are likely to remain within 300 km of the Ukrainian border, but assessed that deeper strikes will continue. It also warned that miscalculation or misidentification is likely in areas linked to the conflict, raising risks when Russian air-defence systems engage incoming drones.While European and US airlines avoid Russian airspace, carriers from China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states continue to use the routes. Reuters reported that US airlines have said this gives those carriers a competitive advantage by saving flight time and fuel.The risk to civilian airlinesThe growing use of drones and air-defence systems in and around Russian airspace raises the possibility of civilian aircraft being caught up in military operations. Although Ukraine says it does not intend to target civilian aviation, previous incidents have shown how passenger aircraft can become victims when air-defence systems are operating during an active conflict.In December 2024, an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, after diverting from southern Russia, where Russian forces were responding to Ukrainian drone attacks. Russian President Vladimir Putin later acknowledged that two Russian missiles had detonated near the aircraft. The incident killed 38 people.Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 was also shot down over eastern Ukraine while flying at cruising altitude through an area where fighting was taking place, killing all 298 people aboard. Europe’s top human rights court last year found Russia responsible for the downing.Another major incident occurred in January 2020, when Iran’s Revolutionary Guard mistakenly shot down Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 shortly after take-off from Tehran. All 176 people aboard were killed. Iranian air defences had been placed on heightened alert at the time, following Iran’s missile strikes on US forces in Iraq amid escalating tensions between Tehran and Washington.
