India’s Q1 FY2026-27 GDP growth beats estimates at 7.8% despite US-Iran war, global headwinds
India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter of FY 2026-27 beat estimates at 7.8%. This is the first full quarter of the US-Iran war which was expected to adversely impact GDP growth. However, real GDP growth did slow by 80 basis points from 8.6% in the fourth quarter of FY 2025-26.The Indian economy expanded 7.8% in the April-June quarter of the current financial year, compared with 6.9% growth in the same period a year earlier, according to government data released on Monday.The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) estimated real Gross Domestic Product, or GDP at constant prices, at Rs 81.36 lakh crore in the first quarter of FY27. This compares with Rs 75.46 lakh crore in Q1 of FY26 and represents year-on-year growth of 7.8 per cent.The latest growth figure was also higher than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) earlier projection of 7 per cent for Q1 FY27. The central bank had estimated quarterly growth at 7 per cent earlier this month, while raising its full-year FY27 growth forecast to 6.7 per cent from 6.6 per cent.Nominal GDP, which is calculated at current prices without adjusting for inflation, also recorded double-digit growth. It was estimated at Rs 88.27 lakh crore in Q1 FY27, up from Rs 80.00 lakh crore in the corresponding quarter of FY26. This translates into growth of 10.3 per cent.The data also pointed to strong expansion in gross value added (GVA), which tracks the value generated across different sectors of the economy.
Robust growth despite headwinds
“The Indian economy has sustained growth momentum despite global headwinds,” the ministry said.The 7.8 per cent GDP growth comes despite a backdrop of global uncertainty and economic headwinds. MoSPI said the economy had continued to maintain its growth momentum in the face of these challenges.However, the Q1 GDP figures are provisional and could be revised. MoSPI said changes in input data provided by source agencies, along with improvements in data coverage, would affect subsequent revisions to the estimates.The ministry said the figures are therefore likely to be revised over time according to the prescribed release calendar, and this should be kept in mind when interpreting the data.The next quarterly GDP estimates, covering the July-September period, or Q2 of FY27, are scheduled to be released on November 30, 2026.The latest release marks the first official assessment of India’s economic performance in FY27. It shows that real GDP growth in the April-June quarter was 0.8 percentage points above the RBI’s earlier estimate of 7 per cent.
