Dalal Street outlook: Markets seek recovery after two-week slide; crude, geopolitical cues in focus

After two weeks of declines, Dalal Street could see some consolidation this week, with crude oil prices and developments in the US-Iran conflict likely to remain key drivers of market sentiment, analysts said.Brent crude prices, which are currently above $90 a barrel, will be closely watched, along with geopolitical developments, Siddhartha Khemka, head of research, wealth management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said.“After two weeks of correction in the Nifty, Indian equity markets could consolidate, with marginal recovery expected in the near term. Key monitorables include Brent crude prices, which are anchored above $90/barrel and geopolitical developments,” Khemka told PTI.The global market focus will also be on the US Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Investors are expected to closely follow the Jackson Hole symposium, particularly remarks by the Fed chairman, for indications about the direction of interest rates.“Investors will closely monitor the Jackson Hole symposium, particularly comments from the US Federal Reserve Chairman, for indications on the future trajectory of interest rates. US GDP estimates, durable goods orders and consumer confidence will also provide important clues on the strength of the US economy and the Fed’s policy outlook,” Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.The US economic data, including GDP estimates, durable goods orders and consumer confidence, will offer further clues about the health of the economy and the Fed’s policy outlook.“Global markets head into the coming week with investor attention centred on three key themes: the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory, Nvidia’s quarterly results and the unresolved US-Iran conflict,” Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money said.Investors will also closely scrutinise Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s address at Jackson Hole against the backdrop of volatile long-dated Treasury yields.“Against a backdrop of volatile long-dated Treasury yields, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s address at the Jackson Hole symposium will be closely scrutinised for clues on how the central bank is weighing persistent inflation risks against signs of a softer labour market ahead of its September policy meeting,” Ponmudi said.The US-Iran conflict remains another major concern for global markets. The 60-day US-Iran agreement expired without a lasting settlement, while the Strait of Hormuz remains at the centre of the confrontation.“The 60-day US-Iran agreement expired without a lasting settlement, leaving the Strait of Hormuz at the centre of an unresolved confrontation and normal energy flows through the region disrupted,” Ponmudi added.Foreign institutional flows and liquidity conditions will be among the factors watched by investors, Mishra said. Foreign portfolio investors have meanwhile accelerated their purchases of Indian equities, putting in Rs 23,544 crore so far in August.The increased FPI buying comes after a weak week for domestic equities. BSE Sensex ended last week 468.42 points, or 0.60 per cent, lower, while NSE Nifty declined 114 points, or 0.46 per cent.