{"id":8020,"date":"2026-08-03T01:28:16","date_gmt":"2026-08-03T01:28:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/?p=8020"},"modified":"2026-08-03T01:28:16","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T01:28:16","slug":"us-scientists-analysed-55-storm-and-atmospheric-variables-to-identify-hurricane-rapid-intensification-atlantic-communities-could-receive-warnings-as-much-as-five-days-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/?p=8020","title":{"rendered":"US scientists analysed 55 storm and atmospheric variables to identify hurricane rapid intensification; Atlantic communities could receive warnings as much as five days ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\"US<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
New method flags hurricane rapid intensification up to five days ahead<\/span><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Coastal communities across the Atlantic could soon receive life-saving warnings up to five days<\/span> before a hurricane rapidly strengthens, after atmospheric scientists developed a statistical tool that analyses 55 environmental and storm-related factors<\/span>.Led by researchers at the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR)<\/span>, the team created a prediction model using logistic regression<\/span> to estimate the chances that a tropical cyclone will suddenly become much stronger.The study, published in the journal Weather and Forecasting<\/span> under the title An Ensemble-Based Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Prediction Tool for Extended Lead Times<\/span>, was co-authored by scientists from the University at Albany, State University of New York<\/span>, and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research<\/span>.<\/p>\n

Longer warning times for coastal communities<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

Rapid intensification happens when a hurricane’s maximum sustained winds increase by at least 30 knots<\/span> (about 35 mph<\/span>) within 24 hours<\/span>. Current tools used by the National Hurricane Center<\/span> usually provide only one to three days<\/span> of advance warning.“The advantage of this new technique is to provide a tool to forecast rapid intensification even further out,” said NSF NCAR scientist Christopher Rozoff, who led the study. “This can give needed time for those in harm’s way to board up their windows, evacuate, or take other steps to protect lives and property.”The researchers analysed 55 different factors<\/span>, including sea surface temperatures and upper-level wind shear, using forecasts produced between 2019 and 2024<\/span> by NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System<\/span>.For Atlantic hurricanes, the model successfully predicted the probability of rapid intensification up to five days<\/span> in advance. For storms in the eastern Pacific, it produced reliable forecasts up to three days<\/span> ahead.<\/p>\n

\n
\"Hurricane<\/p>\n

Mexico Beach in the Florida Panhandle was devastated after Hurricane Michael rapidly intensified and made landfall <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Why rapid intensification is hard to predict<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

Meteorologists have long struggled to forecast rapid intensification, especially when weak storms become extremely powerful just before reaching land.When Hurricane Michael<\/span> formed in the Gulf of Mexico in 2018, early forecasts predicted winds of less than 70 mph<\/span>. Instead, the storm quickly strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane<\/span> with 160 mph<\/span> winds, devastating the Florida Panhandle and causing $6 billion<\/span> in damage at Tyndall Air Force Base<\/span>.Other recent storms show the same challenge:<\/p>\n

\n