{"id":27814,"date":"2026-09-23T14:49:15","date_gmt":"2026-09-23T14:49:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/?p=27814"},"modified":"2026-09-23T14:49:15","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T14:49:15","slug":"pakistan-wants-to-be-the-muslim-worlds-security-guard-can-its-economy-pay-the-bill","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/?p=27814","title":{"rendered":"Pakistan wants to be the Muslim world&#8217;s security guard. Can its economy pay the bill?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"e9jwa\">\n<div class=\"vdo_embedd\">\n<div class=\"GfdvZ\">\n<section class=\"_bIDB  clearfix id-r-component leadmedia undefined undefined  E9tg9 \" style=\"top:0px\">\n<div class=\"_bIDB\" data-ua-type=\"1\" onclick=\"stpPgtnAndPrvntDefault(event)\">\n<div class=\"ypVvZ\">\n<div class=\"WGttI\"><img src=\"https:\/\/static.toiimg.com\/thumb\/msid-134440145,imgsize-994806,width-400,height-225,resizemode-4\/pakistan-pm-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-r.jpg\" alt=\"Pakistan wants to be the Muslim world's security guard. Can its economy pay the bill?\" title=\"Can Pakistan afford to be the Muslim world's 'security guard'?\" decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"high\"\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"Ta7d_ img_cptn\"><span title=\"Can Pakistan afford to be the Muslim world's 'security guard'?\">Can Pakistan afford to be the Muslim world&#8217;s &#8216;security guard&#8217;?<\/span><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Pakistan is betting that military muscle can buy it a bigger seat at the global table. Islamabad has deepened defence ties with Saudi Arabia and Turkey through the Mecca pact, sought a larger role in Gulf security, marketed its fighter jets and drones abroad and cast itself as an emerging security partner across the Muslim world.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"2\"\/>But the bigger Pakistan\u2019s ambitions become, thebigger the question: How much can its military and economy actually carry?<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"4\"\/>The country is trying to project strategic strength while simultaneously operating under a $7 billon International Monetary Fund programme, managing large external financing needs and trying to keep its foreign exchange reserves above critical levels. Its latest federal budget increased defence spending sharply while cutting the federal development allocation.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"8\"\/>That tension is becoming harder to ignore.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"10\"\/>In June, Pakistan unveiled an PKR 18.77 trillion budget for the financial year beginning July 2026. Defence spending was raised 18% to PKR 3 trillion, while federal development spending was cut to PKR 1 trillion. The Shehbaz Sharif-led government is also targeting PKR 15.26 trillion in tax revenue and an overall fiscal deficit of PKR 5.23 trillion, or 3.6% of GDP.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"12\"\/><\/p>\n<div data-pos=\"0\" class=\"id-r-component iIpbx undefined  &#10;        \">\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"The Mecca Deal\" msid=\"134440722\" imgsize=\"761376\" resizemode=\"4\" width=\"\" title=\"Trilateral defence pact\" placeholdersrc=\"https:\/\/static.toiimg.com\/photo\/83033472.cms\" offsetvertical=\"0\" placeholdermsid=\"47529300\" type=\"thumb\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/static.toiimg.com\/photo\/imgsize-761376,msid-134440722\/the-mecca-deal.jpg\" data-api-prerender=\"true\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Trilateral defence pact<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"14\"\/>Pakistan finance minister Muhammad Aurangzeb justified the defence increase by pointing to regional uncertainty, saying defence spending had been raised \u201cto make the country invincible\u201d.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"17\"\/>However, the desperation to attain \u201cinvincibility\u201d must be attributed to the setback Islamabad suffered at India\u2019s hands during Operation Sindoor, when Pakistan lost multiple crucial airbases and key military infrastructure.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"19\"\/>The numbers underline the dilemma facing Islamabad: Pakistan wants to be a security provider abroad at a time when its government is still trying to create enough fiscal space to stabilise the economy at home.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"22\"\/><\/p>\n<p><h2>From bilateral ties to a three-way defence pact<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"24\"\/>The biggest symbol of Pakistan&#8217;s expanding security role is its new defence arrangement with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"26\"\/>The three Islamic nations in August formed a Nato-style Mecca Pact. The agreement becomes crucial as the pact, also included a nuclear power.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"28\"\/>On August 7, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, under which an armed attack on one of the three countries is to be treated as an attack on all. <!-- -->The agreement was signed in Mecca by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"32\"\/>Erdogan described the pact as being based on \u201ccollective deterrence\u201d, while saying it was not directed against any particular country. Sharif called it a \u201chistoric pact\u201d and described it as a \u201cshield of peace\u201d.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"34\"\/><\/p>\n<div data-pos=\"0\" class=\"id-r-component iIpbx undefined  &#10;        \">\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Pak's defence network\" msid=\"134440683\" imgsize=\"717850\" resizemode=\"4\" width=\"\" title=\"\" placeholdersrc=\"https:\/\/static.toiimg.com\/photo\/83033472.cms\" offsetvertical=\"0\" placeholdermsid=\"47529300\" type=\"thumb\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/static.toiimg.com\/photo\/imgsize-717850,msid-134440683\/paks-defence-network.jpg\" data-api-prerender=\"true\"\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"36\"\/>Pakistan&#8217;s foreign minister Ishaq Dar has stressed that the agreement is \u201cpurely defensive in nature\u201d and open to other countries that accept its principles.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"39\"\/>The arrangement brings together three countries with very different strengths.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"41\"\/>Pakistan has a large, combat-experienced military and is the only nuclear-armed country in the Muslim world. Saudi Arabia has enormous financial resources and significant influence across the Arab world. Turkey has Nato&#8217;s second-largest army and a rapidly expanding defence industry.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"43\"\/>On paper, the combination is formidable.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"45\"\/>In practice, however, the pact immediately raises questions about what Pakistan can actually contribute if Saudi Arabia faces a major security crisis.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"48\"\/>Those questions have become more pressing as Saudi Arabia has come under attack from Yemen&#8217;s Houthis.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"50\"\/><\/p>\n<p><h2>The first real test came quickly<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"52\"\/>The defence agreement was signed against the backdrop of a rapidly changing Middle East. Since then, Iran-backed Houthi attacks have intensified, targeting Saudi cities, energy infrastructure and shipping routes.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"54\"\/>The issue has already forced Islamabad to clarify how far its treaty obligations extend.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"56\"\/>In September, Pakistan took a U-turn, saying there had been no discussion of a military response under the defence pact following Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. <!-- -->Foreign ministry spokesperson Sajjad Haider Khan said Islamabad remained committed to the agreement but added that action would come \u201cwhen the time comes\u201d.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"60\"\/>That careful wording illustrates the challenge.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"62\"\/>A collective-defence agreement can enhance deterrence without automatically requiring a country to enter every conflict involving its partner. But the credibility of such an arrangement ultimately depends on what happens when the security commitment is tested.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"65\"\/>Turkey has already signalled a willingness to provide military assistance to Saudi Arabia under the pact.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"67\"\/><\/p>\n<div data-pos=\"0\" class=\"id-r-component iIpbx undefined  &#10;        \">\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Mecca pact\" msid=\"134440278\" imgsize=\"1080806\" resizemode=\"4\" width=\"\" title=\"Nato-style defence pact: Who bring what?\" placeholdersrc=\"https:\/\/static.toiimg.com\/photo\/83033472.cms\" offsetvertical=\"0\" placeholdermsid=\"47529300\" type=\"thumb\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/static.toiimg.com\/photo\/imgsize-1080806,msid-134440278\/mecca-pact.jpg\" data-api-prerender=\"true\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Nato-style defence pact: Who bring what?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"69\"\/>Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan said Riyadh could have military needs, particularly technical ones, and that Ankara would have no problem meeting them.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"71\"\/>Pakistan, meanwhile, has pledged support for Saudi Arabia but has so far avoided spelling out the precise circumstances under which it would deploy combat forces.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"74\"\/>That caution is understandable. Pakistan has its own security challenges, a difficult economic position and a military stretched across multiple fronts.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"76\"\/><\/p>\n<p><h2>Pakistan is trying to become an arms seller, too<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"78\"\/>There is another side to Islamabad&#8217;s new defence diplomacy.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"80\"\/>Pakistan does not want to remain only a buyer of military hardware or a provider of troops and security expertise. It increasingly wants to become a defence exporter.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"82\"\/>That effort received a major boost after the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, when Pakistani officials began marketing the country\u2019s military equipment as \u201ccombat tested\u201d.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"85\"\/>However, the reality was totally different. Pakistan indulged in self-congratulation and boasted about its military performance despite losing a sizable chunk of its military infrastructure, including targets in Rawalpindi, the country\u2019s military capital, located barely 15 kilometres from the political capital, Islamabad.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"87\"\/>Pakistan\u2019s two highest authorities, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and field marshal <a href=\"https:\/\/timesofindia.indiatimes.com\/topic\/asim-munir\" styleobj=\"[object Object]\" class=\"\" commonstate=\"[object Object]\" frmappuse=\"1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Asim Munir<\/a>, also repeatedly credited US President Donald Trump for brokering the ceasefire, going as far as backing a Nobel Peace Prize for him.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"92\"\/>The reality, however, was that Pakistan\u2019s Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) had approached his Indian counterpart and pleaded for an end to India\u2019s counterterror operation.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"94\"\/>That apparent attempt to impress the MAGA supremo earned both men Trump\u2019s attention. Munir was described by Trump as his \u201cfavourite field marshal\u201d, while Sharif was praised as a \u201cfantastic\u201d prime minister.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"96\"\/>Reuters reported in January that Pakistan was in discussions with 13 countries over possible defence sales, with six to eight negotiations described as being at an advanced stage. <!-- -->The discussions involved JF-17 fighter jets, training aircraft, drones, air defence systems and armoured vehicles.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"100\"\/>Potential customers mentioned in the report included Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Sudan, Nigeria, Morocco and Ethiopia, while Pakistan has also acknowledged discussions involving Bangladesh and Iraq.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"102\"\/><\/p>\n<div data-pos=\"0\" class=\"id-r-component iIpbx undefined  &#10;        \">\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Pakistan\u2019s potential arms markets&lt;br&gt;\" msid=\"134440453\" imgsize=\"679672\" resizemode=\"4\" width=\"\" title=\"Where could its weapons find buyers?\" placeholdersrc=\"https:\/\/static.toiimg.com\/photo\/83033472.cms\" offsetvertical=\"0\" placeholdermsid=\"47529300\" type=\"thumb\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/static.toiimg.com\/photo\/imgsize-679672,msid-134440453\/pakistans-potential-arms-marketsbr.jpg\" data-api-prerender=\"true\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Where could its weapons find buyers?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"104\"\/>The pitch is straightforward: Relatively capable equipment at a lower price.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"106\"\/>Reuters reported that Pakistani JF-17s are being offered at roughly $30 million to $40 million, significantly below some Western alternatives.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"109\"\/>Pakistan&#8217;s defence production minister Raza Hayat Harraj told Reuters that there were \u201ca lot of queries\u201d and that Islamabad was negotiating, while stressing that details of individual negotiations remained confidential.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"111\"\/>If even a portion of those talks turn into contracts, they could provide Pakistan with something it badly needs: foreign exchange earnings and a larger domestic defence-production ecosystem.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"114\"\/>The country&#8217;s private defence sector is already being pulled into the effort.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"116\"\/>Reuters reported that Pakistani companies are producing reconnaissance and kamikaze drones, with military demand helping drive the expansion of private-sector defence manufacturing.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"118\"\/>That could eventually create a cycle in which military investment generates exports, exports generate foreign currency and foreign currency helps finance further industrial development.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"121\"\/>But that cycle is not guaranteed.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"123\"\/><\/p>\n<p><h2>The China factor<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"125\"\/>Pakistan&#8217;s defence-export ambitions are also tied closely to China.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"127\"\/>The JF-17 is jointly developed by Pakistan and China, while much of Pakistan&#8217;s broader military inventory has Chinese origins or components. That gives Islamabad access to a major defence-industrial partner, but it also means that Pakistan cannot always make export decisions in isolation.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"129\"\/>SIPRI researcher Siemon Wezeman told Reuters that it was unclear how many reported JF-17 discussions would ultimately become firm contracts. <!-- -->He also pointed to possible complications involving proposed sales to countries under UN arms embargoes.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"133\"\/>For Islamabad, therefore, becoming a defence exporter is not simply a matter of finding customers.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"135\"\/>It requires production capacity, financing, political relationships, technology partnerships and careful management of export controls.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"137\"\/>And there is another problem: Defence exports may take years to generate substantial returns, while the costs of maintaining a modern military are immediate.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"140\"\/>The domestic bill is much larger than the defence allocation<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"142\"\/>Pakistan&#8217;s PKR 3 trillion defence allocation is only one part of the country&#8217;s security burden.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"144\"\/>The economy must simultaneously finance debt servicing, public-sector salaries and pensions, energy subsidies and infrastructure, while meeting IMF conditions.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"146\"\/>The 2026-27 budget envisages a federal deficit of PKR 7.02 trillion. At the broader level, after factoring in a projected provincial surplus, the fiscal deficit target is PKR 5.23 trillion, equivalent to 3.6% of GDP.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"149\"\/>The government is also expected to generate PKR 15.26 trillion in tax revenue, despite the Federal Board of Revenue having missed its previous target.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"151\"\/>This is where Pakistan&#8217;s defence ambitions collide with a familiar domestic problem: the state needs more revenue, but expanding the tax base is politically and economically difficult.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"153\"\/>Reuters noted that sectors such as agriculture, retail and real estate remain difficult to tax fully, increasing the pressure on salaried workers and businesses already within the tax system.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"156\"\/>At the same time, Islamabad has promised the IMF a primary surplus of 2% of GDP.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"158\"\/>In simple terms, the government needs to collect more than it spends before interest payments are taken into account.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"160\"\/>That leaves limited room for additional spending, whether on welfare, infrastructure or defence.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"162\"\/><\/p>\n<p><h2>Development is the opportunity cost<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"164\"\/>The clearest illustration of that squeeze is the development budget.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"166\"\/>As defence spending rose to PKR 3 trillion, federal development spending was set at PKR 1 trillion.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"169\"\/>That does not mean every rupee spent on defence comes directly at the expense of a school, hospital or road. Pakistan&#8217;s budget is considerably more complicated than that.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"171\"\/>But it does show the hierarchy of priorities in a country where fiscal resources are limited.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"173\"\/>Security has become a politically difficult area to cut, particularly after the 2025 conflict with India and amid continuing militant violence inside Pakistan.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"176\"\/>The Islamabad authorities also face two resentment-filled fronts in Balochistan and PoK, where growing discontent is being fuelled by economic hardship and demands for independence and autonomy.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"178\"\/>Development spending, meanwhile, can be delayed, reduced or shifted to provinces.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"180\"\/>The result is a structural trade-off: Pakistan wants to maintain military readiness against external threats while also addressing the economic conditions that underpin long-term national power.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"183\"\/>A country can buy aircraft, missiles and drones. It cannot build sustained strategic power without economic growth, industrial capacity, energy security and human capital.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"185\"\/><\/p>\n<p><h2>Saudi Arabia is both security partner and financial lifeline<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"187\"\/>Pakistan&#8217;s relationship with Saudi Arabia makes this tension even more interesting.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"189\"\/>Riyadh is not merely a defence partner. It has repeatedly played a role in Pakistan&#8217;s financial stabilisation.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"191\"\/>In April, Saudi Arabia agreed to provide Pakistan with an additional $3 billion deposit to help it meet a $3.5 billion repayment to the UAE. <!-- -->The assistance came on top of the renewal of a $5 billion Saudi deposit arrangement.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"195\"\/>Pakistan&#8217;s foreign exchange reserves stood at around $16.4 billion at the end of March, according to Reuters, while the country remained under its $7 billion IMF programme.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"197\"\/>The same relationship that gives Islamabad an important strategic role in Gulf security also provides financial support when its external accounts come under pressure.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"200\"\/>That creates mutual dependence.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"202\"\/>Saudi Arabia gains access to a nuclear-armed security partner with decades of military cooperation. Pakistan gains a wealthy strategic partner willing to provide financial backing.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"204\"\/>But financial assistance is not the same thing as a permanent solution to Pakistan&#8217;s economic constraints.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"206\"\/><\/p>\n<p><h2>Islamabad is still dependent on external financing<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"208\"\/>Pakistan&#8217;s dependence on outside financing remains visible in its dealings with both China and the United States.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"211\"\/>Finance minister Aurangzeb said this month that Islamabad plans to seek an expansion of its 30 billion yuan currency-swap arrangement with China when it comes up for renewal in 2027. Reuters reported that the entire existing facility had been drawn.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"213\"\/>Pakistan is also seeking a $10 billion exchange stabilisation facility from Washington and expects a US decision within months, while talks are under way with US financing institutions over other projects.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"216\"\/>Aurangzeb called Islamabad&#8217;s approach as an \u201cand-and\u201d strategy, arguing that relations with China and the US are not mutually exclusive.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"218\"\/>That balancing act mirrors Pakistan&#8217;s broader foreign-policy strategy.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"220\"\/>It wants China for defence and infrastructure, Saudi Arabia for investment and financial support, Turkey for defence technology and strategic cooperation, and the US for access to Western financial institutions and markets.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"223\"\/>The difficulty is ensuring that these relationships produce economic capacity rather than simply postponing the next financing challenge.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"225\"\/><\/p>\n<p><h2>The military&#8217;s growing regional role<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"227\"\/>Pakistan&#8217;s security role is nevertheless changing.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"229\"\/>The country has long maintained close military ties with Saudi Arabia. In September 2025, Islamabad and Riyadh signed a Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement stating that aggression against either country would be considered aggression against both.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"232\"\/>The military&#8217;s growing role has almost made Rawalpindi a superior power centre in Pakistan compared to Islamabad. Pakistan has remained a country greatly influenced by its military. Asim Munir has been in power, seeking to supersede his predecessors, the military dictators.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"234\"\/>The de-facto head of Pakistan, Munir, has also gone far to advocate for peace, hosting talks for US-Iran peace.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"236\"\/>However, the peace talks failed.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"239\"\/>The newer three-way Mecca pact with Turkey expands that strategic architecture.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"241\"\/>Pakistan has also been trying to position itself as a mediator in the Middle East, including between Washington and Tehran, while simultaneously strengthening its security commitments to Riyadh.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"243\"\/>That is an unusually complicated diplomatic role.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"245\"\/>Islamabad must reassure Saudi Arabia without alienating Iran, maintain relations with the US without damaging its ties with China, and deepen military cooperation with Turkey while preserving its own strategic priorities.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"248\"\/>The danger is that a country with limited resources can accumulate commitments faster than it accumulates the capacity to fulfil them.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"250\"\/><\/p>\n<p><h2>A bigger military does not automatically mean a stronger state<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"252\"\/>Pakistan&#8217;s military spending has been rising, but it remains much smaller in absolute terms than the defence budgets of its principal regional competitors.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"254\"\/>According to SIPRI, Pakistan&#8217;s military expenditure rose 11% in 2025 to $11.9 billion. India&#8217;s spending reached $92.1 billion, while Saudi Arabia spent $83.2 billion.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"257\"\/>The figures put Pakistan&#8217;s strategy into perspective.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"259\"\/>It cannot realistically compete by matching the spending of larger economies. Its answer has instead been to seek cost-effective platforms, leverage Chinese technology, develop domestic production and use its military relationships as a source of strategic influence.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"261\"\/>That explains the emphasis on the JF-17, drones, training and military cooperation.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"264\"\/>Pakistan&#8217;s defence industry can potentially occupy a niche between expensive Western systems and lower-cost equipment from other suppliers.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"266\"\/>The opportunity is real.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"268\"\/>But so is the capacity problem.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"270\"\/>A successful export industry needs factories that can produce at scale, supply chains that can withstand disruption, research and development, skilled workers and enough capital to keep investing.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"272\"\/><\/p>\n<p><h2>The real test is economic endurance<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"274\"\/>Pakistan&#8217;s defence push is therefore not necessarily contradictory.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"277\"\/>A stronger defence industry could generate exports. Greater exports could bring in foreign currency. Joint production could create jobs and technology. Strategic partnerships could attract investment.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"279\"\/>But none of those outcomes are automatic.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"281\"\/>The immediate reality is that Islamabad is trying to maintain a large defence establishment while meeting IMF conditions, servicing debt and preserving foreign exchange reserves.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"284\"\/><\/p>\n<div data-pos=\"0\" class=\"id-r-component iIpbx undefined  &#10;        \">\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Pakistan\u2019s defence ambition vs economic capacity\" msid=\"134440431\" imgsize=\"1126422\" resizemode=\"4\" width=\"\" title=\"Pakistan wants a bigger military role. Can its economy keep up?\" placeholdersrc=\"https:\/\/static.toiimg.com\/photo\/83033472.cms\" offsetvertical=\"0\" placeholdermsid=\"47529300\" type=\"thumb\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/static.toiimg.com\/photo\/imgsize-1126422,msid-134440431\/pakistans-defence-ambition-vs-economic-capacity.jpg\" data-api-prerender=\"true\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Pakistan wants a bigger military role. Can its economy keep up?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"286\"\/>The June budget already showed the pressure: Defence spending rose 18%, while federal development spending fell to PKR 1 trillion.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"288\"\/>Meanwhile, Pakistan&#8217;s finance minister has warned that prolonged disruption in the Middle East could threaten the country&#8217;s 4% growth target because of higher oil prices.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"290\"\/>That matters because Pakistan is heavily exposed to energy prices and external financing.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"292\"\/>A sustained geopolitical crisis could therefore produce the paradox Islamabad least wants: More demand for military readiness at precisely the moment when the economy has less room to pay for it.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"295\"\/><\/p>\n<p><h2>The promise and the hard reality<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"297\"\/>Pakistan is clearly trying to turn military capability into strategic influence.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"299\"\/>The new Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan defence pact gives Islamabad a larger role in Gulf security. Its relationship with Riyadh gives it both strategic and financial importance. Its defence industry is attracting foreign interest. Its JF-17 and drone programmes offer the prospect of export earnings. And its military&#8217;s experience gives it diplomatic weight that exceeds the size of Pakistan&#8217;s economy.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"302\"\/>But strategic influence has a price.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"304\"\/>Every new defence commitment creates an expectation of action. Every overseas weapons sale requires production capacity. Every new military platform creates long-term maintenance and training costs. And every promise made abroad ultimately has to be supported by an economy at home.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"307\"\/>That is Pakistan&#8217;s central challenge.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"309\"\/>The country may be able to sell itself as a security provider, arms producer and strategic partner. <!-- -->But to sustain that image, it will need something more difficult than a new defence pact or a successful weapons demonstration: A durable economic base capable of paying for its ambitions.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"313\"\/>For now, Pakistan is attempting to build that base while simultaneously expanding its security commitments.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"315\"\/>The contradiction is visible in its own budget.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"317\"\/>Islamabad says it needs more defence spending because the region is becoming more dangerous. At the same time, it is cutting development spending because the government&#8217;s finances are constrained.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"319\"\/>That may be manageable for a year or two.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"321\"\/>The bigger question is whether it can remain manageable for long enough for Pakistan&#8217;s new defence promises to translate into lasting strategic power.<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/timesofindia.indiatimes.com\/world\/pakistan\/pakistan-wants-to-be-the-muslim-worlds-security-guard-can-its-economy-pay-the-bill\/articleshow\/134439616.cms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Can Pakistan afford to be the Muslim world&#8217;s &#8216;security guard&#8217;? Pakistan is betting that military muscle can buy it a bigger seat at the global table. Islamabad has deepened defence ties with Saudi Arabia and Turkey through the Mecca pact, sought a larger role in Gulf security, marketed its fighter jets and drones abroad and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27815,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27814","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-31"],"magazineBlocksPostFeaturedMedia":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/pakistan-pm-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-r.jpg","medium":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/pakistan-pm-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-r.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/pakistan-pm-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-r.jpg","large":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/pakistan-pm-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-r.jpg","1536x1536":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/pakistan-pm-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-r.jpg","2048x2048":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/pakistan-pm-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-r.jpg","blogsy-small":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/pakistan-pm-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-r.jpg","blogsy-small-tall":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/pakistan-pm-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-r.jpg","blogsy-small-square":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/pakistan-pm-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-r.jpg","blogsy-small-masonry":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/pakistan-pm-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-r.jpg","blogsy-medium":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/pakistan-pm-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-r.jpg","blogsy-medium-masonry":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/pakistan-pm-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-r.jpg","blogsy-large":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/pakistan-pm-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-r.jpg","blogsy-wide":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/pakistan-pm-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-r.jpg"},"magazineBlocksPostAuthor":{"name":"admin","avatar":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8709732a479614e7a8aa24d3eb1b239f30dc6d90c61464ed495001e7a469d856?s=96&d=mm&r=g"},"magazineBlocksPostCommentsNumber":"0","magazineBlocksPostExcerpt":"Can Pakistan afford to be the Muslim world&#8217;s &#8216;security guard&#8217;? Pakistan is betting that military muscle can buy it a bigger seat at the global table. Islamabad has deepened defence ties with Saudi Arabia and Turkey through the Mecca pact, sought a larger role in Gulf security, marketed its fighter jets and drones abroad and [&hellip;]","magazineBlocksPostCategories":["\u0b26\u0b47\u0b36 \u0b2c\u0b3f\u0b26\u0b47\u0b36"],"magazineBlocksPostViewCount":1,"magazineBlocksPostReadTime":15,"magazine_blocks_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/pakistan-pm-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-r.jpg",400,225,false],"medium":["https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/pakistan-pm-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-r.jpg",300,169,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/pakistan-pm-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-r.jpg",150,84,false]},"magazine_blocks_author":{"display_name":"admin","author_link":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/author\/admin"},"magazine_blocks_comment":0,"magazine_blocks_author_image":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8709732a479614e7a8aa24d3eb1b239f30dc6d90c61464ed495001e7a469d856?s=96&d=mm&r=g","magazine_blocks_category":"<a href=\"#\" class=\"category-link category-link-31\">\u0b26\u0b47\u0b36 \u0b2c\u0b3f\u0b26\u0b47\u0b36<\/a>","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27814","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27814"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27814\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/27815"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27814"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27814"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27814"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}