{"id":26701,"date":"2026-09-20T22:08:33","date_gmt":"2026-09-20T22:08:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/?p=26701"},"modified":"2026-09-20T22:08:33","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T22:08:33","slug":"most-economists-see-rbi-raising-rates-in-october-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/?p=26701","title":{"rendered":"Most economists see RBI raising rates in October policy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"e9jwa\">\n<div class=\"vdo_embedd\">\n<div class=\"GfdvZ\">\n<section class=\"_bIDB  clearfix id-r-component leadmedia undefined undefined  E9tg9 \" style=\"top:0px\">\n<div class=\"_bIDB\" data-ua-type=\"1\" onclick=\"stpPgtnAndPrvntDefault(event)\">\n<div class=\"ypVvZ\">\n<div class=\"WGttI\"><img src=\"https:\/\/static.toiimg.com\/thumb\/msid-134375350,imgsize-104578,width-400,height-225,resizemode-4\/rbi-schedules-underwriting-auction-for-rs-32000-crore-government-securities-on-august-7.jpg\" alt=\"Most economists see RBI raising rates in October policy\" title=\"The poll of a dozen economists showed that a majority expects repo rate to rise by 25 basis points\" decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"high\"\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"Ta7d_ img_cptn\"><span title=\"The poll of a dozen economists showed that a majority expects repo rate to rise by 25 basis points\">The poll of a dozen economists showed that a majority expects repo rate to rise by 25 basis points<\/span><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>NEW DELHI: Most economists are betting on a rate hike by the monetary policy committee in Oct in the wake of acceleration in inflation, massive liquidity and central banks increasing interest rates in the US and Japan, a poll by TOI has shown.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"2\"\/>The poll of a dozen economists showed that a majority expects repo rate to rise by 25 basis points (100 basis points equal a percentage point), the first increase since Feb 2023 when RBI had opted for a hike to combat the post-pandemic spike in inflation, before it started gradual easing between Feb and Dec 2025. Although MPC kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, economists expect rates to rise by 50-75 bps in this financial year.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"6\"\/>During the second quarter, average inflation will be around 20 bps higher than RBI&#8217;s estimate of 4.7%, Kotak Mahindra Bank chief economist Upasana Bhardwaj said. SBI chief economic adviser Soumya Kanti Ghosh cautioned that inflation is getting generalised. &#8220;It&#8217;s time to build moats through a 25 bps hike in Oct and Dec MPC each, and then to pause and take stock with upcoming data.&#8221;<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"8\"\/>Crisil chief economist D K Joshi said space is shrinking for monetary policy to remain in wait-and-watch mode and a tightening cycle is expected to begin soon. &#8220;The upcoming policy is likely to be more hawkish and the probability of change in stance or rates or both has risen. We expect 25 bps hike in 2026,&#8221; he said.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"12\"\/>IDFC First Bank chief economist Gaura Sengupta said the probability of rate hike is high in Oct as inflation is expected to peak in the next quarter. &#8220;FY27 retail inflation is expected to average 5% (with upside risk). The rate hike cycle is expected to be shallow, with cumulative hikes of 50-75 bps,&#8221; she said.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"15\"\/>ICRA Ratings chief economist Aditi Nayar said if crude oil prices remain elevated in the run-up to the upcoming MPC meeting, then the expected rate hike could be advanced to Oct, while estimating a 50 bps increase. Quant Eco Research economist Yuvika Singhal shared the same view.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"17\"\/>Emkay Global&#8217;s Madhavi Arora and ICICI Bank expect it to range between 50 and 75 bps, depending on how energy prices move.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"19\"\/>CareEdge Ratings chief economist Rajani Sinha said MPC will take note of rising govt bond yields as well, along with the broadening of price pressures.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"22\"\/>There are also a few who believe that the MPC led by RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra will maintain status quo and keep a close watch on the numbers. India Ratings chief economist D K Pant said there is a case for RBI to undertake rate hike, although it may turn counterproductive in Oct, as the liquidity situation is far from stabilising. &#8220;The leading indicator in the upcoming meet will be the liquidity situation, instead of headline inflation figure.<!-- --> There is a high possibility that RBI will maintain the status quo,&#8221; he said.<span class=\"id-r-component br\" data-pos=\"27\"\/>&#8220;Only by Dec, we will have a clear picture of the inflation cycle, which could then trigger a hike of 25-50 bps,&#8221; said Bank of Baroda&#8217;s Madan Sabnavis. HDFC Bank principal economist Sakshi Gupta shared the same view.<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/timesofindia.indiatimes.com\/business\/india-business\/most-economists-see-rbi-raising-rates-in-october-policy\/articleshow\/134375349.cms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The poll of a dozen economists showed that a majority expects repo rate to rise by 25 basis points NEW DELHI: Most economists are betting on a rate hike by the monetary policy committee in Oct in the wake of acceleration in inflation, massive liquidity and central banks increasing interest rates in the US and 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poll of a dozen economists showed that a majority expects repo rate to rise by 25 basis points NEW DELHI: Most economists are betting on a rate hike by the monetary policy committee in Oct in the wake of acceleration in inflation, massive liquidity and central banks increasing interest rates in the US and [&hellip;]","magazineBlocksPostCategories":["\u0b26\u0b47\u0b36 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