{"id":24132,"date":"2026-09-14T12:39:58","date_gmt":"2026-09-14T12:39:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/?p=24132"},"modified":"2026-09-14T12:39:58","modified_gmt":"2026-09-14T12:39:58","slug":"up-assembly-elections-and-fight-for-muslim-votes-decoding-sp-congresss-owaisi-problem-india-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koshalsambada.in\/?p=24132","title":{"rendered":"UP assembly elections and fight for Muslim votes: Decoding SP, Congress’s Owaisi problem | India News"},"content":{"rendered":"


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\"UP<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Owaisi faces his biggest test in UP.<\/span><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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“I am ready to join hands. I am ready to form an alliance. Today is the time to talk. Don’t cry later after the elections are over. We don’t want the BJP to come to power again.\u201d<\/p>\n

Asaduddin Owaisi, AIMIM<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

That was Asaduddin Owaisi<\/a>‘s outreach-cum-warning to Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav in July at a rally in Moradabad while he launched AIMIM<\/a>\u2019s campaign for the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections due early next year.Seeking alliance with opposition parties is now a part of Owaisi\u2019s playbook to counter allegations of being a vote-cutter and the B-team of the BJP<\/a>. We have seen AIMIM adopt similar strategy in other states like Maharashtra and Bihar. In both these states, it went all out to seek space in larger opposition alliances before deciding to contest on its own when its offer was rejected. Then the “rejection: became a part of Owaisi’s campaign: we asked you to come in, you kept us out, so don’t blame us for what happens next.”So, when Owaisi reached out to Samajwadi Party in July, it was on expected lines and did not come as a surprise. But there is now a twist in the tale.Owaisi\u2019s Uttar Pradesh plans suffered a jolt this month when one of his most trusted aides and the party\u2019s national spokesperson Syed Asim Waqar dumped the party to join the Congress.Waqar, who rose to prominence defending the AIMIM and its politics, was a prominent voice for AIMIM in Uttar Pradesh and hence his crossing over to the Congress potentially impacts Owaisi’s bid to make electoral inroads in UP.But more than his exit, it was his parting remarks that will bother Owaisi. \u201cBeing in the AIMIM for so many years, I felt that we pay lip service by stating that the BJP must be removed, but on the ground, we don’t fight the BJP; we fight the Congress, the SP; we are fighting every other person who wants to remove the BJP,\u201d Waqar said when asked about his decision to leave the AIMIM.Justifying his switch, Waqar said, \u201cIf we (AIMIM) keep fighting the opposition and do not allow it to blossom, then we are helping the BJP. I have decided that if we are true nationalists and want to remove the BJP honestly, then our objective should be to fight the BJP. If we are fighting the enemies of the BJP, then we are friends of the BJP. In reality, if someone is fighting the BJP across the country, it is Congress, Rahul Gandhi and his team.“Now, this is precisely the point which the opposition parties make against Owaisi and his AIMIM.<\/p>\n

AIMIM\u2019s UP plans<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

Uttar Pradesh has been a difficult story for Owaisi. His AIMIM failed to win a single seat in the 2022 assembly elections in the state. And that makes the 2027 challenge a real test of whether the Bihar formula will work or whether Akhilesh is right to believe that AIMIM is a rival he can afford to ignore.Even while offering to join hands with Akhilesh, Owaisi chose to kick off AIMIM’s 2027 campaign from Matera in Bahraich, a seat held by the Samajwadi Party. He also announced AIMIM\u2019s candidate from the seat making his intent very clear.Owaisi questioned what SP leaders had done for the area despite getting Muslim votes, while saying AIMIM was ready for an alliance only if it was treated with ‘respect’ and given ‘equal status’.The party has dropped enough signals to suggest that it is preparing for a much bigger push in UP in 2027. The party has also divided the state into zones and appointed regional in-charges as part of its attempt to strengthen the organisation before the election.AIMIM accepted that its performance was not up to the mark in 2022 but asserted that the party has spent the last few years trying to correct that.<\/p>\n

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\"AIMIM\"<\/p>\n

Bihar is AIMIM\u2019s strongest base outside Telangana.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

AIMIM’s Uttar Pradesh president Shaukat Ali has said the party could contest around 200 seats if it fights alone. He has also kept the door open for a possible understanding with the BSP.“Our natural alliance, if we were to forge one, would be with the BSP. Muslims and Dalits together account for nearly 40% of the vote share, enough to defeat both the SP and BJP,” Ali said.The Samajwadi Party and the Congress will keep a close watch on AIMIM\u2019s BSP outreach as it can have the potential to disrupt a lot of political calculations in the state. However, for now Mayawati has made it clear that her BSP will not forge any alliances with any party for elections.<\/p>\n

What makes UP challenge both interesting and difficult<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

The 2027 assembly elections in UP is likely to see a very keen contest for Muslim votes. The switching of sides by Asim Waqar exposes the keen contest among the non-BJP parties for support of Muslims in the upcoming elections.<\/p>\n

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\"Caste<\/p>\n

Non-Yadav OBCs form the biggest bloc in UP\u2019s caste arithmetic.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The Congress, which would consider this AIMIM import as a big boost to its prospects, had contested the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in alliance with the Samajwadi Party, and, as of now, they are both part of INDIA bloc ahead of next year\u2019s assembly elections.But this alliance has not stopped the two parties from taking measures to consolidate their individual support bases. Last month, the Samajwadi Party got a boost when the son-in-law of Congress MP from UP\u2019s Saharanpur Imran Masood joined the party in the presence of Akhilesh Yadav. Imran Masood has been very vocal against SP and its chief Akhilesh Yadav accusing them of imposing as the \u2018big-brother\u2019 in SP-Congress alliance for the 2027 UP polls.For the SP, the Alpsankhyaks (read Muslims) form an important component of Akhilesh Yadav\u2019s PDA outreach. In fact, his success in Uttar Pradesh till now has been largely powered by the Yadavs and the Muslims. And while, Akhilesh desperately tries to broaden his support base by reaching out to the Dalits, women and even the Pandits, he cannot make big gains without the support of Muslims.However, that does not stop the Congress from making its own outreach to the community in a bid to try and win them back. After all, for several decades the Muslims had contributed to the electoral success of the Congress. It was only with the rise of regional parties that they drifted away from the grand-old-party. So, it will naturally be happy with Asim Waqar on its side.The AIMIM, which is the third pole of Muslim politics in the state, will try to take advantage of the posturing and war of words between the two alliance partners as it tries to find its space in the state.AIMIM has shown that it can become a serious player where its support is concentrated. What it has not yet shown is that it can do the same in Uttar Pradesh, where the Samajwadi Party remains the main beneficiary of Muslim votes against the BJP.<\/p>\n

Where AIMIM matters and where it doesn’t<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

In the 2023 Telangana assembly election, the party contested nine seats and won seven, underlining how strong its hold remains in parts of the state.Bihar has been its most successful experiment outside Telangana till now. The party managed to win five seats in 2020 and repeated the number in 2025, mainly in the Seemanchal region.In Maharashtra, AIMIM has pockets of support but won just one assembly seat in 2024. In Uttar Pradesh, the challenge has been tougher. In the 2022 assembly election, AIMIM contested 96 seats but failed to win any. Its statewide vote share remained below 1%.<\/p>\n

AIMIM\u2019s Rajasthan experiment<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

Owaisi\u2019s move to contest the Panchayat and Municipal body elections in Rajasthan shows the party\u2019s intent to expand its base in states where it was not a player till now. The AIMIM chief maintains that the state needs a strong third political alternative apart from the ruling BJP and the Congress which have been the dominant players in state\u2019s politics till now.In a bid to disturb the duoploy, Owaisi has announced that if Rashtriya Loktantrik Party chief Hanuman Beniwal emerges as a third force, the AIMIM will support him and work together to challenge both major political parties.Owaisi said, \u201cHanuman Beniwal and AIMIM together will make the lives of BJP and Congress leaders difficult.\u201d He also appealed to voters to support AIMIM candidates and RLP candidates contesting elections on the party\u2019s bottle symbol.<\/p>\n

The BJP would be smiling either way<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

While the Congress and the other opposition parties keep an eye on AIMIM\u2019s political moves, the BJP perhaps would not be worried much.When Owaisi had reached out to Akhilesh, BJP wasted no time in mocking the proposal. Former BJP spokesperson Shehzad Poonawalla had then called it a ‘friend request’ to Akhilesh and accused both parties of vote-bank politics.<\/p>\n

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Akhilesh Yadav and Owaisi have long competed in appeasement politics. Now they have set aside the contest over who will be the bigger ‘bhaijaan’ and are looking at a ‘bhaijaan collaboration’. Owaisi is effectively sending Akhilesh ji a friend request. They are two sides of the same coin<\/p>\n

Asaduddin Owaisi, AIMIM<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

For the BJP, Owaisi can be useful either way, more so in Uttar Pradesh.If AIMIM contests separately and takes away even a small number of votes from SP-Congress in close seats, the BJP may benefit. If AIMIM joins the alliance, the BJP can use Owaisi’s presence to sharpen its attack on the opposition over minority appeasement.<\/p>\n

Catch-22 for opposition parties<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

The opposition parties are reluctant to accept Owaisi\u2019s offer to ensure that non-BJP votes, especially of the Muslims, do not split. They know that Owaisi\u2019s offer is like a double-edged sword.Most of these opposition parties like the RJD in Bihar, Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh have banked heavily on the support of Muslims for their politics. If they accept AIMIM as an ally, they fear that Muslims will back Owaisi and gradually this will weaken their own minorities\u2019 politics.<\/p>\n

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Share your thoughts in the comments<\/p>\n<\/div>\n